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Deportivo Maipu vs Atlanta Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:30

Deportivo Maipu

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atlanta

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-19.4%0-24.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.1%1-112.7%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-18.6%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.6%3-13.9%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 37.7% 2.65 +30.1%

Draw 26.9% 35.7% 2.80 -14.8%

Away win 23.9% 37.0% 2.70 -21.3%

Over 2.5 45.7% 38.5% 2.60 +18.8%

Over 3.5 26.0% 18.2% 5.50 +25.8%

BTTS 49.2% 48.8% 2.05 +0.9%

Home O1.5 38.3% 33.3% 3.00 +14.9%

Away O1.5 20.3% 32.3% 3.10 -22.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 15.1%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Maipu1.3

Atlanta0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MAIPU · PPG 1.82

ATLANTA · PPG 1.44

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Maipu (H) 49.1%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +30.1%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.8%

Atlanta (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Maipu face Atlanta in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Maipu a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Atlanta 24%, so Deportivo Maipu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportivo Maipu and 0.8 for Atlanta (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Maipu are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.44 for Atlanta. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +38.2%.

Deportivo Maipu vs Atlanta Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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