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Central Norte vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 19:30

Central Norte

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

San Telmo

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-027.3%0-117.2%0-25.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.3%1-111.5%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.1%2-13.9%2-21.2%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.4%3-10.9%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 51.3% 1.95 -38.2%

Draw 39.6% 36.4% 2.75 +8.9%

Away win 28.7% 21.7% 4.60 +19.2%

Over 2.5 21.2% 35.1% 2.85 -23.8%

Over 3.5 12.2% 16.7% 6.00 -16.1%

BTTS 44.2% 43.5% 2.30 +1.7%

Home O1.5 33.0% 40.8% 2.45 -19.1%

Away O1.5 19.2% 20.0% 5.00 -2.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.2%

D 40% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 21% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 27.3%

#2 1–0 18.3%

#3 0–1 17.2%

#4 1–1 11.5%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Norte0.7

San Telmo0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 21.2% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL NORTE · PPG 1.00

SAN TELMO · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Central Norte (H) 31.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -38.2%

Draw 39.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +8.9%

San Telmo (A) 28.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Norte face San Telmo in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Norte a 32% chance, the draw 40% and San Telmo 29%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Central Norte and 0.6 for San Telmo (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 21% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Norte are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.71 for San Telmo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Central Norte vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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