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Temperley vs CA Guemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 19:00

Temperley

PPG 1.83 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

CA Guemes

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-111.0%0-24.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.4%1-113.2%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.2%2-17.9%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.7%3-13.1%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 47.6% 2.10 -5.5%

Draw 30.8% 38.2% 2.62 -19.3%

Away win 24.3% 24.4% 4.10 -0.2%

Over 2.5 40.6% 29.9% 3.35 +36.0%

Over 3.5 22.8% 12.5% 8.00 +49.4%

BTTS 47.8% 39.2% 2.55 +21.9%

Home O1.5 40.4% 33.3% 3.00 +21.2%

Away O1.5 24.6% 20.0% 5.00 +13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.8%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–0 15.4%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–1 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Temperley1.2

CA Guemes0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TEMPERLEY · PPG 1.83

CA GUEMES · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=45.0%

Win probability 1X2

Temperley (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -5.5%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -19.3%

CA Guemes (A) 24.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Temperley face CA Guemes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Temperley a 45% chance, the draw 31% and CA Guemes 24%, so Temperley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Temperley and 0.9 for CA Guemes (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Temperley are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.71 for CA Guemes. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +49.4%. This match finished 4-1.

Temperley vs CA Guemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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