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Patronato vs A. Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Argentina - Primera Nacional · Regular Season - 18 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 18:30

Patronato

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

A. Rafaela

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.4%0-116.3%0-25.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.9%1-111.6%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.8%2-14.2%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.6%3-11.0%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 33.6% 1.90 -36.2%

Draw 39.9% 2.85 +13.7%

Away win 26.5% 4.60 +13.1%

Over 2.5 21.2% 3.20 -19.3%

Over 3.5 12.2% 7.00 -8.8%

BTTS 44.1% 2.55 +12.4%

Win probability 1X2

Patronato (H) 33.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -36.2%

Draw 39.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +13.7%

A. Rafaela (A) 26.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 71%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 62%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.1%

D 40% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 21% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.4%

#2 1–0 18.9%

#3 0–1 16.3%

#4 1–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Patronato0.7

A. Rafaela0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 21.2% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PATRONATO · PPG 1.57

A. RAFAELA · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.57) vs P(Home)=33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Patronato face A. Rafaela in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Patronato a 34% chance, the draw 40% and A. Rafaela 27%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Patronato and 0.6 for A. Rafaela (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 21% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Patronato are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.71 for A. Rafaela. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.7%.

Patronato vs A. Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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