Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / Ferro Carril vs Acassuso

Ferro Carril vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Argentina - Primera Nacional · Regular Season - 18 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 18:30

Ferro Carril

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Acassuso

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.8%0-112.9%0-23.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.0%1-111.0%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.4%2-14.7%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.7%3-11.3%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 1.45 -40.4%

Draw 36.7% 3.40 +24.8%

Away win 22.2% 8.50 +53.2%

Over 2.5 21.2% 2.65 -26.3%

Over 3.5 12.2% 5.50 -19.7%

BTTS 42.9% 2.75 +18.0%

Win probability 1X2

Ferro Carril (H) 41.1%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -40.4%

Draw 36.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +24.8%

Acassuso (A) 22.2%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +53.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 71%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob42.9%

H 41% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 21% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.8%

#2 1–0 22.0%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–1 12.9%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferro Carril0.9

Acassuso0.5

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 21.2% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FERRO CARRIL · PPG 1.17

ACASSUSO · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.63)

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferro Carril face Acassuso in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferro Carril a 41% chance, the draw 37% and Acassuso 22%, so Ferro Carril are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ferro Carril and 0.5 for Acassuso (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 21% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferro Carril are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.63 for Acassuso. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +53.2%.

Ferro Carril vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions