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Ferro Carril vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 18:30

Ferro Carril

PPG 1.17 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Acassuso

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.8%0-112.9%0-23.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.0%1-111.0%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.4%2-14.7%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.7%3-11.3%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 69.0% 1.45 -40.4%

Draw 36.7% 29.4% 3.40 +24.8%

Away win 22.2% 11.8% 8.50 +53.2%

Over 2.5 21.2% 37.7% 2.65 -26.3%

Over 3.5 12.2% 18.2% 5.50 -19.7%

BTTS 42.9% 36.4% 2.75 +18.0%

Home O1.5 33.0% 51.8% 1.93 -36.3%

Away O1.5 18.0% 10.0% 10.00 +48.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob42.9%

H 41% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 21% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.8%

#2 1–0 22.0%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–1 12.9%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferro Carril0.9

Acassuso0.5

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 21.2% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FERRO CARRIL · PPG 1.17

ACASSUSO · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Ferro Carril (H) 41.1%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -40.4%

Draw 36.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +24.8%

Acassuso (A) 22.2%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +53.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferro Carril face Acassuso in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferro Carril a 41% chance, the draw 37% and Acassuso 22%, so Ferro Carril are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ferro Carril and 0.5 for Acassuso (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 21% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferro Carril are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.63 for Acassuso. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +53.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Ferro Carril vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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