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Almirante Brown vs Godoy Cruz Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 17:30

Almirante Brown

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Godoy Cruz

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-032.0%0-119.1%0-25.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.4%1-110.4%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-04.7%2-12.8%2-20.8%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.9%3-10.5%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 33.3% 3.00 -10.9%

Draw 39.6% 40.0% 2.50 -1.0%

Away win 33.2% 36.4% 2.75 -8.7%

Over 2.5 21.2% 31.3% 3.20 -19.3%

Over 3.5 12.2% 14.3% 7.00 -8.8%

BTTS 34.7% 43.5% 2.30 -20.2%

Home O1.5 33.0% 26.7% 3.75 +23.8%

Away O1.5 18.0% 29.0% 3.45 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob34.7%

D 40% / xG 0.5-0.6 / U2.5 21% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 32.0%

#2 0–1 19.1%

#3 1–0✓ 17.4%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almirante Brown0.5

Godoy Cruz0.6

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 21.2% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 1.57

GODOY CRUZ · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Almirante Brown (H) 27.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.9%

Draw 39.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -1.0%

Godoy Cruz (A) 33.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almirante Brown face Godoy Cruz in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almirante Brown a 27% chance, the draw 40% and Godoy Cruz 33%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for Almirante Brown and 0.6 for Godoy Cruz (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 21% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almirante Brown are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.86 for Godoy Cruz. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +23.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Almirante Brown vs Godoy Cruz Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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