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Trelleborg vs Lund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 15 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 14:00

Trelleborg

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lund

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.5%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.9%1-110.4%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.0%3-16.3%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.6%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 59.5% 1.68 -10.0%

Draw 22.7% 26.3% 3.80 -8.2%

Away win 23.6% 23.8% 4.20 -0.5%

Over 2.5 61.2% 61.7% 1.62 -0.9%

Over 3.5 37.3% 40.0% 2.50 -6.8%

BTTS 55.4% 63.7% 1.57 -13.0%

Home O1.5 53.6% 62.5% 1.60 -14.2%

Away O1.5 36.3% 35.7% 2.80 +1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trelleborg1.9

Lund1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TRELLEBORG · PPG 2.14

LUND · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Trelleborg (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -10.0%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.2%

Lund (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trelleborg face Lund in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trelleborg a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Lund 24%, so Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Trelleborg and 1.1 for Lund (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trelleborg are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.38 for Lund. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.8%.

Trelleborg vs Lund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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