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AFC Eskilstuna vs Assyriska Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 12 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 14:00

AFC Eskilstuna

PPG 0.83 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Assyriska

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.4%0-24.3%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.1%1-19.7%1-27.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-26.9%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.2%3-15.2%3-24.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.5%4+-22.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 51.3% 1.95 -14.4%

Draw 21.8% 26.0% 3.85 -9.6%

Away win 34.3% 32.3% 3.10 +6.3%

Over 2.5 64.6% 72.5% 1.38 -10.8%

Over 3.5 42.0% 51.3% 1.95 -18.1%

BTTS 63.7% 74.1% 1.35 -14.0%

Home O1.5 54.8% 64.5% 1.55 -15.1%

Away O1.5 49.4% 50.0% 2.00 -1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.7%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Eskilstuna1.8

Assyriska1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC ESKILSTUNA · PPG 0.83

ASSYRISKA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

AFC Eskilstuna (H) 43.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -14.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.6%

Assyriska (A) 34.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Eskilstuna face Assyriska in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Assyriska 34%, so AFC Eskilstuna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.6 for Assyriska (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Assyriska. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 1-0.

AFC Eskilstuna vs Assyriska Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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