Today / Norway - 1. Division / Stromsgodset vs Raufoss

Stromsgodset vs Raufoss Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 14:00

Stromsgodset

PPG 3.00 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Raufoss

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.0% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.0%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.3%1-13.7%1-21.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.6%2-16.6%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.0%3-17.8%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-019.9%4+-117.3%4+-27.5%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.8% 83.3% 1.20 -13.8%

Draw 18.6% 17.4% 5.75 +4.2%

Away win 9.6% 9.1% 11.00 +3.4%

Over 2.5 73.0% 78.1% 1.28 -6.6%

Over 3.5 47.0% 58.8% 1.70 -20.1%

BTTS 55.7% 62.5% 1.60 -10.9%

Home O1.5 76.0% 84.7% 1.18 -10.3%

Away O1.5 25.9% 27.4% 3.65 -3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.7%

H 72% / xG 3.6-0.9 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.0%

#2 4–0 8.0%

#3 3–1 7.8%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 4–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stromsgodset3.6

Raufoss0.9

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STROMSGODSET · PPG 3.00

RAUFOSS · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.60) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Stromsgodset (H) 71.8%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -13.8%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +4.2%

Raufoss (A) 9.6%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stromsgodset face Raufoss in Norway - 1. Division on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stromsgodset a 72% chance, the draw 19% and Raufoss 10%, so Stromsgodset are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Stromsgodset and 0.9 for Raufoss (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stromsgodset are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Raufoss. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.3%. This match finished 6-1.

Stromsgodset vs Raufoss Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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