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Ranheim vs Stabaek Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 17:00

Ranheim

PPG 2.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stabaek

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.4%0-23.6%0-32.6%0-4+2.4%1 1-03.1%1-16.7%1-27.3%1-35.3%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.1%2-16.7%2-27.3%2-35.3%2-4+4.7%3 3-02.1%3-14.5%3-24.8%3-33.5%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.5%4+-23.8%4+-32.8%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 37.0% 2.70 -3.9%

Draw 21.9% 26.7% 3.75 -10.7%

Away win 42.5% 46.5% 2.15 -8.6%

Over 2.5 67.1% 74.1% 1.35 -9.4%

Over 3.5 49.0% 54.1% 1.85 -9.3%

BTTS 69.1% 76.9% 1.30 -10.2%

Home O1.5 54.7% 56.5% 1.77 -3.2%

Away O1.5 52.6% 62.5% 1.60 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob69.1%

A 42% / xG 2.0-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.7%

#2 1–2 7.3%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 1–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ranheim2.0

Stabaek2.2

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 49.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RANHEIM · PPG 2.43

STABAEK · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.43) vs P(Home)=35.6%

Win probability 1X2

Ranheim (H) 35.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -3.9%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.7%

Stabaek (A) 42.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ranheim face Stabaek in Norway - 1. Division on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ranheim a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Stabaek 43%, so Stabaek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Ranheim and 2.2 for Stabaek (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ranheim are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 1.29 for Stabaek. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.7%.

Ranheim vs Stabaek Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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