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Egersund vs Moss Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 12:00

Egersund

PPG 1.86 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Moss

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.6%0-22.4%0-31.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-03.4%1-16.4%1-25.9%1-33.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.1%2-17.6%2-27.0%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.3%3-16.1%3-25.6%3-33.5%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-16.4%4+-25.9%4+-33.7%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 50.0% 2.00 -1.2%

Draw 22.2% 26.7% 3.75 -10.1%

Away win 28.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.9%

Over 2.5 72.4% 69.0% 1.45 +5.0%

Over 3.5 53.2% 46.5% 2.15 +14.4%

BTTS 69.1% 71.4% 1.40 -3.3%

Home O1.5 61.2% 59.9% 1.67 +2.2%

Away O1.5 49.8% 47.6% 2.10 +4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 4.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.1%

H 49% / xG 2.4-1.8 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.6%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.1%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Egersund2.4

Moss1.8

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

EGERSUND · PPG 1.86

MOSS · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Egersund (H) 49.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -1.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.1%

Moss (A) 28.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Egersund face Moss in Norway - 1. Division on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Egersund a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Moss 28%, so Egersund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Egersund and 1.8 for Moss (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Egersund are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.29 for Moss. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Egersund vs Moss Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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