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Haugesund vs Kongsvinger Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 14:00

Haugesund

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kongsvinger

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.6% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.4%0-22.5%0-31.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-02.7%1-15.7%1-26.0%1-34.2%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.2%2-16.8%2-27.1%2-34.9%2-4+4.2%3 3-02.6%3-15.4%3-25.6%3-33.9%3-4+3.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-15.6%4+-25.8%4+-34.1%4+-4+3.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 2.00 -11.6%

Draw 21.1% 3.90 -10.6%

Away win 34.7% 2.95 +2.4%

Over 2.5 74.6% 1.35 +0.7%

Over 3.5 52.9% 1.85 -2.1%

BTTS 68.6% 1.30 -10.8%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 1.53 -7.3%

Away Over 1.5 50.0% 1.85 -7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -4.6%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob68.6%

H 44% / xG 2.4-2.1 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.1%

#2 2–1 6.8%

#3 1–1 5.7%

#4 1–2 6.0%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haugesund2.4

Kongsvinger2.1

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HAUGESUND · PPG 2.60

KONGSVINGER · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.60) > Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Haugesund (H) 44.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -11.6%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.6%

Kongsvinger (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haugesund face Kongsvinger in Norway - 1. Division on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haugesund a 44% chance, the draw 21% and Kongsvinger 35%, so Haugesund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Haugesund and 2.1 for Kongsvinger (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haugesund are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.83 for Kongsvinger. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.7%.

Haugesund vs Kongsvinger Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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