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Kongsvinger vs Sogndal Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 16:00

Kongsvinger

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sogndal

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.9%0-20.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-02.2%1-13.4%1-22.6%1-31.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-03.8%2-16.0%2-24.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.5%3-17.0%3-25.5%3-32.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-115.6%4+-212.1%4+-36.2%4+-4+3.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.7% 63.7% 1.57 +0.0%

Draw 17.2% 23.1% 4.33 -15.3%

Away win 19.1% 23.8% 4.20 -11.9%

Over 2.5 80.9% 76.9% 1.30 +5.2%

Over 3.5 54.2% 56.5% 1.77 -4.1%

BTTS 69.1% 75.2% 1.33 -8.1%

Home O1.5 75.0% 75.2% 1.33 -0.3%

Away O1.5 49.8% 46.5% 2.15 +7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob69.1%

H 64% / xG 3.5-1.6 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.0%

#2 4–1 6.3%

#3 2–1 6.0%

#4 3–2 5.5%

#5 4–2 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kongsvinger3.5

Sogndal1.6

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.9% · O3.5 PROB 54.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KONGSVINGER · PPG 2.67

SOGNDAL · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=63.7%

Win probability 1X2

Kongsvinger (H) 63.7%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +0.0%

Draw 17.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -15.3%

Sogndal (A) 19.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kongsvinger face Sogndal in Norway - 1. Division on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kongsvinger a 64% chance, the draw 17% and Sogndal 19%, so Kongsvinger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Kongsvinger and 1.6 for Sogndal (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kongsvinger are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.71 for Sogndal. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +29.6%.

Kongsvinger vs Sogndal Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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