Today / Norway - 1. Division / Stabaek vs Egersund

Stabaek vs Egersund Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Norway - 1. Division · Regular Season - 11 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 14:00

Stabaek

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Egersund

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.6%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.3%1-16.9%1-23.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.2%2-19.1%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.2%3-18.0%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-19.9%4+-25.5%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 62.3% 1.68 +4.7%

Draw 19.3% 4.00 -13.7%

Away win 18.4% 3.90 -16.9%

Over 2.5 65.8% 1.40 -7.9%

Over 3.5 42.8% 2.00 -14.4%

BTTS 61.6% 1.40 -13.8%

Win probability 1X2

Stabaek (H) 62.3%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +4.7%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -13.7%

Egersund (A) 18.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -16.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 14.1%

Bet Hit 70%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 62% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 2–0 8.2%

#3 3–1 8.0%

#4 1–1 6.9%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stabaek2.6

Egersund1.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

STABAEK · PPG 2.25

EGERSUND · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=62.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stabaek face Egersund in Norway - 1. Division on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stabaek a 62% chance, the draw 19% and Egersund 18%, so Stabaek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Stabaek and 1.1 for Egersund (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stabaek are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.75 for Egersund. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.8%.

Stabaek vs Egersund Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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