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Sogndal vs Moss Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Norway - 1. Division · Regular Season - 11 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 14:00

Sogndal

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Moss

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.0% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.2%0-22.1%0-31.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-02.9%1-15.6%1-25.4%1-33.4%1-4+2.6%2 2-03.7%2-17.1%2-26.8%2-34.4%2-4+3.3%3 3-03.2%3-16.1%3-25.8%3-33.7%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-17.2%4+-26.9%4+-34.4%4+-4+3.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 1.83 -7.8%

Draw 21.7% 4.00 -7.9%

Away win 27.9% 3.30 -4.8%

Over 2.5 73.0% 1.35 -1.5%

Over 3.5 50.5% 1.85 -6.6%

BTTS 67.2% 1.33 -10.6%

Win probability 1X2

Sogndal (H) 50.4%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -7.8%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.9%

Moss (A) 27.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 14.1%

Bet Hit 70%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 61%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob67.2%

H 50% / xG 2.6-1.9 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.1%

#2 2–2 6.8%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 3–1 6.1%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sogndal2.6

Moss1.9

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 50.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SOGNDAL · PPG 1.75

MOSS · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Match Preview & Prediction

Sogndal face Moss in Norway - 1. Division on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sogndal a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Moss 28%, so Sogndal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Sogndal and 1.9 for Moss (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sogndal are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.20 for Moss. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +6.2%.

Sogndal vs Moss Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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