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Sandnes Ulf vs Strommen Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 14:00

Sandnes Ulf

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Strommen

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.4%0-21.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-03.9%1-16.2%1-25.0%1-32.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.1%2-18.1%2-26.5%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.4%3-17.1%3-25.6%3-33.0%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-18.6%4+-26.8%4+-33.6%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 54.6% 1.83 -2.6%

Draw 21.0% 27.4% 3.65 -14.0%

Away win 25.8% 27.8% 3.60 -4.3%

Over 2.5 65.8% 62.5% 1.60 +5.3%

Over 3.5 47.0% 40.8% 2.45 +15.2%

BTTS 65.1% 66.7% 1.50 -2.4%

Home O1.5 61.0% 59.9% 1.67 +1.9%

Away O1.5 49.4% 39.2% 2.55 +26.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob65.1%

H 53% / xG 2.6-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 1–1 6.2%

#3 3–1 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sandnes Ulf2.6

Strommen1.6

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 47.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SANDNES ULF · PPG 1.40

STROMMEN · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Sandnes Ulf (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -2.6%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -14.0%

Strommen (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sandnes Ulf face Strommen in Norway - 1. Division on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sandnes Ulf a 53% chance, the draw 21% and Strommen 26%, so Sandnes Ulf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Sandnes Ulf and 1.6 for Strommen (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sandnes Ulf are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.80 for Strommen. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Sandnes Ulf vs Strommen Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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