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Hodd vs Kongsvinger Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 14:00

Hodd

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kongsvinger

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-19.1%0-27.8%0-34.5%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.5%1-111.1%1-29.5%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.9%2-16.8%2-25.8%2-33.3%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.6%3-12.7%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 24.4% 4.10 +24.6%

Draw 24.1% 24.4% 4.10 -0.7%

Away win 45.4% 61.0% 1.64 -25.5%

Over 2.5 60.6% 69.0% 1.45 -12.1%

Over 3.5 37.7% 47.6% 2.10 -20.8%

BTTS 61.6% 69.0% 1.45 -10.7%

Home O1.5 41.6% 40.0% 2.50 +4.0%

Away O1.5 49.4% 67.6% 1.48 -26.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.6%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2✓ 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 0–1 9.1%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hodd1.2

Kongsvinger1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HODD · PPG 2.00

KONGSVINGER · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Hodd (H) 30.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +24.6%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.7%

Kongsvinger (A) 45.4%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -25.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hodd face Kongsvinger in Norway - 1. Division on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hodd a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Kongsvinger 45%, so Kongsvinger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Hodd and 1.7 for Kongsvinger (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hodd are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.60 for Kongsvinger. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Hodd vs Kongsvinger Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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