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Traef vs Bjarg Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 12:30

Traef

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bjarg

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.5%0-23.7%0-32.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.3%1-18.8%1-27.2%1-34.0%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.2%2-18.6%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.4%3-15.6%3-24.6%3-32.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.3%4+-23.5%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

Draw 22.2% 27.4% 3.65 -11.4%

Away win 28.5% 35.1% 2.85 -11.3%

Over 2.5 65.8% 65.4% 1.53 +0.7%

Over 3.5 42.8% 42.6% 2.35 +0.6%

BTTS 63.7% 69.0% 1.45 -7.6%

Home O1.5 59.1% 56.5% 1.77 +4.6%

Away O1.5 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -42.0%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.7%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Traef2.0

Bjarg1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TRAEF · PPG 1.60

BJARG · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (2.25) strong but model favors Home (P=49.4%)

Win probability 1X2

Traef (H) 49.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +3.7%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.4%

Bjarg (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Traef face Bjarg in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Traef a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Bjarg 28%, so Traef are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Traef and 1.6 for Bjarg (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Traef are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.25 for Bjarg. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Traef vs Bjarg Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 Predictions