Today / Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 / Mjondalen vs Notodden

Mjondalen vs Notodden Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 13:00

Mjondalen logo
Mjondalen
PPG 2.67 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Notodden logo
Notodden
PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-18.5%0-26.0%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.4%1-111.9%1-28.4%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-18.3%2-25.9%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.7%3-13.9%3-22.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 40.4%
Draw 24.9%
Away win 34.7%
Over 2.5 57.7%
Over 3.5 33.8%
BTTS 60.0%
Home O1.5 44.1%
Away O1.5 43.7%

League track record

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%
O2.5 37%
BTTS 49%
Score Hit 29%
ROI -42.0%
Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.0%

A 35% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%
#2 1–2 8.4%
#3 2–1 8.3%
#4 0–0 6.0%
#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mjondalen1.4
Notodden1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.7% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MJONDALEN · PPG 2.67

NOTODDEN · PPG 2.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mjondalen (H) 40.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 24.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Notodden (A) 34.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mjondalen face Notodden in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mjondalen a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Notodden 35%, so Mjondalen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Mjondalen and 1.4 for Notodden (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mjondalen are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 2.29 for Notodden.

PredictVantage

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