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Bjarg vs Pors Grenland Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 11:00

Bjarg

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pors Grenland

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.0%0-23.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.5%1-19.5%1-27.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.0%3-15.8%3-24.3%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.3%4+-23.2%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 69.4% 1.44 -28.9%

Draw 22.3% 22.2% 4.50 +0.2%

Away win 28.3% 18.2% 5.50 +33.4%

Over 2.5 65.1% 70.4% 1.42 -7.6%

Over 3.5 42.1% 48.8% 2.05 -13.7%

BTTS 64.2% 65.4% 1.53 -1.8%

Home O1.5 55.7% 73.5% 1.36 -24.3%

Away O1.5 49.0% 33.9% 2.95 +44.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -22.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.2%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bjarg1.9

Pors Grenland1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BJARG · PPG 1.67

PORS GRENLAND · PPG 1.60

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bjarg (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -28.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +0.2%

Pors Grenland (A) 28.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +33.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bjarg face Pors Grenland in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bjarg a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Pors Grenland 28%, so Bjarg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Bjarg and 1.5 for Pors Grenland (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bjarg are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.60 for Pors Grenland. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +44.5%.

Bjarg vs Pors Grenland Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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