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Karlberg vs Hammarby Talang Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Sweden - Ettan - Norra · Norra - 12 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 11:00

Karlberg

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hammarby Talang

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a clear edge.

+11.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-16.9%0-29.5%0-38.8%0-4+11.8%1 1-02.3%1-16.4%1-28.8%1-38.1%1-4+11.0%2 2-01.1%2-13.0%2-24.1%2-33.8%2-4+5.1%3 3-00.3%3-10.9%3-21.3%3-31.2%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 13.0% 4.50 -24.9%

Draw 18.8% 3.80 -17.1%

Away win 68.2% 1.64 +11.8%

Over 2.5 65.1% 1.55 +0.9%

Over 3.5 42.8% 2.35 +0.6%

BTTS 55.7% 1.53 -14.8%

Win probability 1X2

Karlberg (H) 13.0%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -24.9%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -17.1%

Hammarby Talang (A) 68.2%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -17.6%

Bet Hit 46%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob55.7%

A 68% / xG 0.9-2.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.5%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 0–3 8.8%

#4 1–3 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlberg0.9

Hammarby Talang2.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLBERG · PPG 1.00

HAMMARBY TALANG · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlberg face Hammarby Talang in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlberg a 13% chance, the draw 19% and Hammarby Talang 68%, so Hammarby Talang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Karlberg and 2.8 for Hammarby Talang (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlberg are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Hammarby Talang. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +40.9%.

Karlberg vs Hammarby Talang Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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