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Lysekloster vs Notodden Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 11:00

Lysekloster

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Notodden

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-110.6%0-29.4%0-35.5%0-4+3.7%1 1-06.2%1-111.1%1-29.8%1-35.8%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.3%2-15.8%2-25.1%2-33.0%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.1%3-12.0%3-21.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.8% 30.8% 3.25 -19.4%

Draw 23.9% 27.4% 3.65 -7.7%

Away win 55.2% 52.4% 1.91 +5.4%

Over 2.5 54.4% 61.7% 1.62 -11.9%

Over 3.5 33.0% 40.0% 2.50 -17.5%

BTTS 55.7% 65.4% 1.53 -14.8%

Home O1.5 36.7% 41.7% 2.40 -11.9%

Away O1.5 49.4% 57.8% 1.73 -14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -42.0%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob55.7%

A 55% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2✓ 9.4%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lysekloster1.0

Notodden1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LYSEKLOSTER · PPG 1.25

NOTODDEN · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Lysekloster (H) 20.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -19.4%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.7%

Notodden (A) 55.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +5.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lysekloster face Notodden in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lysekloster a 21% chance, the draw 24% and Notodden 55%, so Notodden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Lysekloster and 1.8 for Notodden (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lysekloster are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.00 for Notodden. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Lysekloster vs Notodden Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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