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Quilmes vs Gimnasia y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 20:00

Quilmes

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Gimnasia y Tiro

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.6%0-111.6%0-23.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.5%1-111.6%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.7%2-15.8%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.5%3-11.9%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 47.6% 2.10 -6.3%

Draw 32.1% 37.0% 2.70 -13.3%

Away win 23.3% 25.0% 4.00 -4.1%

Over 2.5 34.9% 33.3% 3.00 +4.7%

Over 3.5 13.9% 14.3% 7.00 -1.6%

BTTS 44.2% 42.6% 2.35 +3.9%

Home O1.5 36.7% 36.4% 2.75 +0.9%

Away O1.5 18.0% 21.1% 4.75 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.2%

H 45% / xG 1.0-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.6%

#2 1–0✓ 21.5%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 11.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quilmes1.0

Gimnasia y Tiro0.5

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 13.9%

Form & verdict PPG

QUILMES · PPG 1.71

GIMNASIA Y TIRO · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=44.6%

Win probability 1X2

Quilmes (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -6.3%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.3%

Gimnasia y Tiro (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Quilmes face Gimnasia y Tiro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quilmes a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Gimnasia y Tiro 23%, so Quilmes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Quilmes and 0.5 for Gimnasia y Tiro (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quilmes are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.67 for Gimnasia y Tiro. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Quilmes vs Gimnasia y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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