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Ciudad Bolivar vs Deportivo Moron Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 19:00

Ciudad Bolivar

PPG 1.43 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Deportivo Moron

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.3%0-117.0%0-26.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.5%1-112.5%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.1%2-14.6%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.5%3-11.1%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 37.0% 2.70 -15.5%

Draw 34.0% 40.8% 2.45 -16.7%

Away win 34.7% 32.3% 3.10 +7.6%

Over 2.5 31.5% 26.7% 3.75 +18.1%

Over 3.5 12.2% 11.1% 9.00 +5.9%

BTTS 44.2% 38.2% 2.62 +15.8%

Home O1.5 33.0% 26.0% 3.85 +27.1%

Away O1.5 24.3% 23.1% 4.33 +3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.2%

D 34% / xG 0.7-0.8 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.3%

#2 0–1 17.0%

#3 1–0 16.5%

#4 1–1 12.5%

#5 0–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ciudad Bolivar0.7

Deportivo Moron0.8

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.5% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CIUDAD BOLIVAR · PPG 1.43

DEPORTIVO MORON · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Ciudad Bolivar (H) 31.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -15.5%

Draw 34.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -16.7%

Deportivo Moron (A) 34.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ciudad Bolivar face Deportivo Moron in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ciudad Bolivar a 31% chance, the draw 34% and Deportivo Moron 35%, so Deportivo Moron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ciudad Bolivar and 0.8 for Deportivo Moron (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ciudad Bolivar are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.14 for Deportivo Moron. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +27.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Ciudad Bolivar vs Deportivo Moron Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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