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Torreense vs Maritimo Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 17:00

Torreense

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Maritimo

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-116.1%0-28.6%0-33.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.4%1-113.3%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.1%2-15.5%2-22.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.4%3-11.5%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.8% 37.3% 2.68 -25.5%

Draw 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%

Away win 40.7% 38.2% 2.62 +6.6%

Over 2.5 29.5% 50.0% 2.00 -41.0%

Over 3.5 12.5% 29.0% 3.45 -56.9%

BTTS 36.9% 58.8% 1.70 -37.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob36.9%

A 41% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.1%

#2 0–0 15.0%

#3 1–1 13.3%

#4 1–0✓ 12.4%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torreense0.8

Maritimo1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.5% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TORREENSE · PPG 1.64

MARITIMO · PPG 2.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

41%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs Home GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

Torreense (H) 27.8%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -25.5%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -5.5%

Maritimo (A) 40.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torreense face Maritimo in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torreense a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Maritimo 41%, so Maritimo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Torreense and 1.1 for Maritimo (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torreense are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 2.29 for Maritimo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Torreense vs Maritimo Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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