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Nueva Chicago vs Chacarita J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 18:30

Nueva Chicago

PPG 1.14 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Chacarita J.

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.9%0-112.2%0-23.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.0%1-112.2%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.0%2-16.1%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.4%3-12.0%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 41.7% 2.40 +7.0%

Draw 32.1% 38.2% 2.62 -15.9%

Away win 23.3% 30.3% 3.30 -13.9%

Over 2.5 34.9% 33.3% 3.00 +4.7%

Over 3.5 18.2% 14.3% 7.00 +16.4%

BTTS 47.4% 43.5% 2.30 +9.0%

Home O1.5 36.7% 32.3% 3.10 +13.8%

Away O1.5 18.0% 25.0% 4.00 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.4%

H 45% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.9%

#2 1–0 20.0%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–0✓ 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nueva Chicago1.0

Chacarita J.0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NUEVA CHICAGO · PPG 1.14

CHACARITA J. · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.14) vs P(Home)=44.6%

Win probability 1X2

Nueva Chicago (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +7.0%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -15.9%

Chacarita J. (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nueva Chicago face Chacarita J. in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nueva Chicago a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Chacarita J. 23%, so Nueva Chicago are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Nueva Chicago and 0.6 for Chacarita J. (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nueva Chicago are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.29 for Chacarita J.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Nueva Chicago vs Chacarita J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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