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D. de Belgrano vs Colon Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 18:30

D. de Belgrano

PPG 1.29 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Colon Santa Fe

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-027.7%0-117.6%0-25.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.0%1-111.4%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.8%2-13.7%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.3%3-10.8%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 38.5% 2.60 -17.1%

Draw 40.9% 40.0% 2.50 +2.3%

Away win 27.2% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Over 2.5 21.2% 32.3% 3.10 -20.6%

Over 3.5 11.8% 15.4% 6.50 -14.0%

BTTS 42.9% 44.4% 2.25 -3.5%

Home O1.5 33.0% 30.8% 3.25 +7.2%

Away O1.5 20.0% 26.3% 3.80 -14.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.9%

D 41% / xG 0.6-0.6 / U2.5 21% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 27.7%

#2 1–0 18.0%

#3 0–1 17.6%

#4 1–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. de Belgrano0.6

Colon Santa Fe0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 21.2% · O3.5 PROB 11.8%

Form & verdict PPG

D. DE BELGRANO · PPG 1.29

COLON SANTA FE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

D. de Belgrano (H) 31.9%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -17.1%

Draw 40.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +2.3%

Colon Santa Fe (A) 27.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. de Belgrano face Colon Santa Fe in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. de Belgrano a 32% chance, the draw 41% and Colon Santa Fe 27%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for D. de Belgrano and 0.6 for Colon Santa Fe (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 21% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. de Belgrano are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Colon Santa Fe. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 0-3.

D. de Belgrano vs Colon Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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