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Almagro vs Agropecuario Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 18:30

Almagro

PPG 1.43 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Agropecuario

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.6%0-114.7%0-25.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.4%1-112.5%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.9%2-15.3%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.2%3-11.5%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 40.8% 2.45 -12.0%

Draw 40.0% 35.7% 2.80 +12.0%

Away win 24.1% 33.3% 3.00 -16.6%

Over 2.5 21.2% 36.4% 2.75 -25.0%

Over 3.5 12.2% 16.7% 6.00 -16.1%

BTTS 44.2% 46.5% 2.15 -5.0%

Home O1.5 33.0% 33.9% 2.95 -2.6%

Away O1.5 24.3% 29.0% 3.45 -9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.2%

H 36% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 21% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.6%

#2 1–0 18.4%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–1 14.7%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almagro0.9

Agropecuario0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 21.2% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMAGRO · PPG 1.43

AGROPECUARIO · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.43) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Almagro (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -12.0%

Draw 40.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +12.0%

Agropecuario (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almagro face Agropecuario in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almagro a 36% chance, the draw 40% and Agropecuario 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.9 for Almagro and 0.7 for Agropecuario (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 21% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almagro are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.86 for Agropecuario. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Almagro vs Agropecuario Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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