Colegiales vs SM Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Argentina - Primera Nacional Regular Season - 18 Estadio de Colegiales· Buenos Aires Saturday, June 13, 2026 18:00

Colegiales PPG 2.14

VS PENDING

SM Tucuman PPG 1.14

HomeO15· +15.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Colegiales face SM Tucuman in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colegiales a 37% chance, the draw 40% and SM Tucuman 23%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Colegiales and 0.6 for SM Tucuman (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 21% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colegiales are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.14 for SM Tucuman. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +15.5%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.4%

Odds: 2.50 EV: -6.5%

Draw 39.9%

Odds: 2.62 EV: +4.5%

Away 22.6%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -16.6%

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 21.2% Odds: 3.40 -16.8%

Over 3.5 12.2% Odds: 7.00 -8.8%

BTTS 42.9% Odds: 2.45 +5.1%

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0

2nd 1-0

3rd 0-1

4th 1-1

5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Colegiales

0.72

SM Tucuman

0.60

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 114 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5/Under 75%

BTTS/No 65%

Score Hit 73%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 47% (17 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=37.4%