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Colegiales vs SM Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 18:00

Colegiales

PPG 2.14 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

SM Tucuman

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.7%0-116.1%0-24.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.2%1-111.6%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.9%2-14.2%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.7%3-11.0%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 40.0% 2.50 -6.5%

Draw 39.9% 38.2% 2.62 +4.5%

Away win 22.6% 31.3% 3.20 -16.6%

Over 2.5 21.2% 29.4% 3.40 -16.8%

Over 3.5 12.2% 14.3% 7.00 -8.8%

BTTS 42.9% 40.8% 2.45 +5.1%

Home O1.5 33.0% 28.6% 3.50 +15.5%

Away O1.5 18.0% 23.1% 4.33 -13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.9%

H 37% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 21% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.7%

#2 1–0 19.2%

#3 0–1 16.1%

#4 1–1 11.6%

#5 2–0✓ 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colegiales0.7

SM Tucuman0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 21.2% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

COLEGIALES · PPG 2.14

SM TUCUMAN · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=37.4%

Win probability 1X2

Colegiales (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -6.5%

Draw 39.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +4.5%

SM Tucuman (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colegiales face SM Tucuman in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colegiales a 37% chance, the draw 40% and SM Tucuman 23%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Colegiales and 0.6 for SM Tucuman (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 21% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colegiales are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.14 for SM Tucuman. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Colegiales vs SM Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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