Today / T. Wilhelmsburg vs Sasel

T. Wilhelmsburg vs Sasel Prediction

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

T. Wilhelmsburg
PPG 0.91 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Sasel
PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-17.5%0-27.1%0-34.5%0-4+3.3%1 1-05.3%1-110.0%1-29.5%1-36.0%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.5%2-16.7%2-26.3%2-34.0%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.6%3-13.0%3-22.8%3-31.8%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 27.2%
Draw 22.4%
Away win 50.5%
Over 2.5 62.8%
Over 3.5 40.5%
BTTS 62.7%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.7%

A 50% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%
#2 1–2 9.5%
#3 0–1 7.5%
#4 0–2 7.1%
#5 2–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

T. Wilhelmsburg1.3
Sasel1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

T. WILHELMSBURG · PPG 0.91

SASEL · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.91), Away AVERAGE (1.15)

Win probability 1X2

T. Wilhelmsburg (H) 27.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 22.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Sasel (A) 50.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

T. Wilhelmsburg face Sasel on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives T. Wilhelmsburg a 27% chance, the draw 22% and Sasel 51%, so Sasel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for T. Wilhelmsburg and 1.9 for Sasel (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, T. Wilhelmsburg are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 1.15 for Sasel.

PredictVantage

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