Today / T. Wilhelmsburg vs Sasel
T. Wilhelmsburg vs Sasel Prediction
Tuesday, April 14, 2026
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
A 50% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%
Form & verdict
T. WILHELMSBURG · PPG 0.91
SASEL · PPG 1.15
Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.91), Away AVERAGE (1.15)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
T. Wilhelmsburg face Sasel on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives T. Wilhelmsburg a 27% chance, the draw 22% and Sasel 51%, so Sasel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for T. Wilhelmsburg and 1.9 for Sasel (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, T. Wilhelmsburg are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 1.15 for Sasel.