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Colchester U21 vs Cardiff C. U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 12:00

Colchester U21

PPG 1.46 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cardiff C. U21

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-111.8%0-29.5%0-35.1%0-4+3.0%1 1-07.3%1-111.8%1-29.5%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.7%2-15.9%2-24.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.2%3-12.0%3-21.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.5% 29.9% 3.35 -21.3%

Draw 24.9% 25.0% 4.00 -0.4%

Away win 51.6% 57.1% 1.75 -9.7%

Over 2.5 48.5% — — —

Over 3.5 26.7% 57.1% 1.75 -53.3%

BTTS 50.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 18%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob50.6%

A 52% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 0–1 11.8%

#3 1–2 9.5%

#4 0–2 9.5%

#5 1–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colchester U211.0

Cardiff C. U211.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COLCHESTER U21 · PPG 1.46

CARDIFF C. U21 · PPG 1.54

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.46), Away GOOD (1.54)

Win probability 1X2

Colchester U21 (H) 23.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -21.3%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.4%

Cardiff C. U21 (A) 51.6%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colchester U21 face Cardiff C. U21 in England - Professional Development League on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colchester U21 a 24% chance, the draw 25% and Cardiff C. U21 52%, so Cardiff C. U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Colchester U21 and 1.6 for Cardiff C. U21 (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colchester U21 are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.54 for Cardiff C. U21.

Colchester U21 vs Cardiff C. U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Match Preview & Prediction

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