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Fleetwood U21 vs Swansea U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 12:00

Fleetwood U21

PPG 1.23 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Swansea U21

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.23), Away AVERAGE (1.45)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-17.9%0-27.5%0-34.7%0-4+3.3%1 1-05.5%1-110.2%1-29.6%1-36.0%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.5%2-16.6%2-26.2%2-33.9%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.5%3-12.8%3-22.6%3-31.7%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.2% 32.3% 3.10 -18.8%

Draw 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -10.0%

Away win 51.2% 54.1% 1.85 -5.3%

Over 2.5 61.2% — — —

Over 3.5 38.9% 60.6% 1.65 -35.8%

BTTS 61.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 18%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob61.3%

A 51% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–1✓ 7.9%

#4 0–2 7.5%

#5 2–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fleetwood U211.3

Swansea U211.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FLEETWOOD U21 · PPG 1.23

SWANSEA U21 · PPG 1.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.23), Away AVERAGE (1.45)

Win probability 1X2

Fleetwood U21 (H) 26.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.8%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.0%

Swansea U21 (A) 51.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fleetwood U21 face Swansea U21 in England - Professional Development League on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fleetwood U21 a 26% chance, the draw 23% and Swansea U21 51%, so Swansea U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Fleetwood U21 and 1.9 for Swansea U21 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fleetwood U21 are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.45 for Swansea U21. This match finished 0-1.

Fleetwood U21 vs Swansea U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Match Preview & Prediction

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