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Sheffield W U21 vs Barnsley U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 13:00

Sheffield W U21

PPG 1.08 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Barnsley U21

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.08) vs Away AVERAGE (1.46)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-17.0%0-25.6%0-33.0%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.7%1-110.7%1-28.6%1-34.5%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.2%2-18.2%2-26.5%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.6%3-14.2%3-23.3%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 52.4% 1.91 -29.9%

Draw 23.8% 25.6% 3.90 -7.2%

Away win 39.5% 33.9% 2.95 +16.5%

Over 2.5 60.3% — — —

Over 3.5 38.0% 55.6% 1.80 -31.6%

BTTS 62.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 18%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.4%

A 40% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–1 7.0%

#5 1–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sheffield W U211.5

Barnsley U211.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SHEFFIELD W U21 · PPG 1.08

BARNSLEY U21 · PPG 1.46

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.08) vs Away AVERAGE (1.46)

Win probability 1X2

Sheffield W U21 (H) 36.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -29.9%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.2%

Barnsley U21 (A) 39.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sheffield W U21 face Barnsley U21 in England - Professional Development League on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sheffield W U21 a 37% chance, the draw 24% and Barnsley U21 40%, so Barnsley U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sheffield W U21 and 1.6 for Barnsley U21 (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sheffield W U21 are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.46 for Barnsley U21. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 4-0.

Sheffield W U21 vs Barnsley U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Match Preview & Prediction

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