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Dinamo Tirana vs KF Tirana Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 17:00

Dinamo Tirana

PPG 1.53 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

KF Tirana

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 79.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+39.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-12.8%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.2%1-16.5%1-21.5%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.7%2-17.7%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.0%3-16.0%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-013.2%4+-16.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 79.7% 57.1% 1.75 +39.5%

Draw 14.6% 30.8% 3.25 -52.5%

Away win 5.7% 23.1% 4.33 -75.3%

Over 2.5 53.0% 46.5% 2.15 +14.0%

Over 3.5 30.8% — — —

BTTS 33.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -61.7%

Bet Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob33.3%

H 80% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.7%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 3–0 13.0%

#4 2–1 7.7%

#5 4–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Tirana2.3

KF Tirana0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO TIRANA · PPG 1.53

KF TIRANA · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Tirana (H) 79.7%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +39.5%

Draw 14.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -52.5%

KF Tirana (A) 5.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -75.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Tirana face KF Tirana in Albania - Superliga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Tirana a 80% chance, the draw 15% and KF Tirana 6%, so Dinamo Tirana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Dinamo Tirana and 0.5 for KF Tirana (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Tirana are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.00 for KF Tirana. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +39.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Dinamo Tirana vs KF Tirana Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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