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Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Tirana Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Tirana

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-17.4%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.6%1-111.7%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.2%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.1%3-14.8%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 61.7% 1.62 -14.1%

Draw 24.6% 28.6% 3.50 -8.3%

Away win 22.4% 21.1% 4.75 +3.8%

Over 2.5 50.1% 55.6% 1.80 -9.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 36.0% 2.78 -13.1%

BTTS 49.1% 56.5% 1.77 -13.1%

Home O1.5 46.7% 59.5% 1.68 -21.5%

Away O1.5 22.5% 27.3% 3.66 -10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.6%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 2–0 11.5%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Egnatia Rrogozhinë1.6

Tirana0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

EGNATIA RROGOZHINË · PPG 1.72

TIRANA · PPG 1.32

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Egnatia Rrogozhinë (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -14.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.3%

Tirana (A) 22.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Egnatia Rrogozhinë face Tirana in Albania - Superliga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Egnatia Rrogozhinë a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Tirana 22%, so Egnatia Rrogozhinë are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 0.8 for Tirana (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Egnatia Rrogozhinë are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.32 for Tirana. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 3-0.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Tirana Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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