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Dinamo Tirana vs AF Elbasani Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:30

Dinamo Tirana

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

UPCOMING

AF Elbasani

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DD ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-110.7%0-24.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.2%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.8%2-18.1%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.6%3-13.3%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 47.6% 2.10 -12.2%

Draw 30.7% 33.3% 3.00 -7.9%

Away win 27.5% 30.8% 3.25 -6.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 43.5% 2.30 -1.8%

Over 3.5 20.9% 24.4% 4.10 -8.6%

BTTS 48.0% 53.2% 1.88 -9.8%

Home O1.5 34.0% 41.7% 2.40 -18.4%

Away O1.5 26.1% 31.4% 3.18 -10.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 42% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Tirana1.2

AF Elbasani0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO TIRANA · PPG 1.28

AF ELBASANI · PPG 1.43

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Tirana (H) 41.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -12.2%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.9%

AF Elbasani (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Tirana face AF Elbasani in Albania - Superliga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Tirana a 42% chance, the draw 31% and AF Elbasani 28%, so Dinamo Tirana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Dinamo Tirana and 0.9 for AF Elbasani (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Tirana are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.43 for AF Elbasani.

Dinamo Tirana vs AF Elbasani Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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