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Teuta Durrës vs Tirana Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Teuta Durrës

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Tirana

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-19.7%0-24.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.1%1-112.8%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-18.4%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 45.5% 2.20 +0.1%

Draw 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%

Away win 23.0% 32.3% 3.10 -17.2%

Over 2.5 42.2% 40.0% 2.50 +5.5%

Over 3.5 20.7% 21.7% 4.60 -2.9%

BTTS 47.2% 50.0% 2.00 -5.6%

Home O1.5 37.2% 38.9% 2.57 -4.4%

Away O1.5 23.6% 29.2% 3.42 -11.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 15.1%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Teuta Durrës1.3

Tirana0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.2% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TEUTA DURRËS · PPG 1.42

TIRANA · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 2.17 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Teuta Durrës (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +0.1%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -5.5%

Tirana (A) 23.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Teuta Durrës face Tirana in Albania - Superliga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Teuta Durrës a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Tirana 23%, so Teuta Durrës are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Teuta Durrës and 0.8 for Tirana (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Teuta Durrës are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.10 for Tirana. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Teuta Durrës vs Tirana Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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