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AF Elbasani vs Egnatia R. Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Final Group - 1 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:00

AF Elbasani

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

Egnatia R.

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-112.2%0-24.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.5%1-113.2%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.9%2-17.1%2-22.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.2%3-12.6%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% 47.6% 2.10 -9.5%

Draw 32.9% 34.7% 2.88 -5.3%

Away win 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -11.0%

Over 2.5 35.0% 42.6% 2.35 -17.8%

Over 3.5 12.2% 24.1% 4.15 -29.6%

BTTS 48.6% 52.1% 1.92 -6.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -61.7%

Bet Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.6%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.5%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AF Elbasani1.1

Egnatia R.0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AF ELBASANI · PPG 2.00

EGNATIA R. · PPG 1.39

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.39)

Win probability 1X2

AF Elbasani (H) 43.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -9.5%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -5.3%

Egnatia R. (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

AF Elbasani face Egnatia R. in Albania - Superliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AF Elbasani a 43% chance, the draw 33% and Egnatia R. 24%, so AF Elbasani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for AF Elbasani and 0.8 for Egnatia R. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AF Elbasani are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.39 for Egnatia R.. This match finished 0-4.

AF Elbasani vs Egnatia R. Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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