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AF Elbasani vs Vllaznia Shkodër Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:30

AF Elbasani

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

DD ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Vllaznia Shkodër

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DD ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-110.1%0-24.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.2%1-113.0%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.2%2-18.4%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.9%3-13.6%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% 40.8% 2.45 +5.3%

Draw 30.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.2%

Away win 26.1% 38.2% 2.62 -19.0%

Over 2.5 43.1% 47.6% 2.10 -9.5%

Over 3.5 20.7% 27.9% 3.58 -15.5%

BTTS 47.2% 55.9% 1.79 -15.5%

Home O1.5 37.2% 39.8% 2.51 -6.6%

Away O1.5 25.7% 37.9% 2.64 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 43% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.0%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AF Elbasani1.3

Vllaznia Shkodër0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AF ELBASANI · PPG 1.79

VLLAZNIA SHKODËR · PPG 1.21

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.20 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AF Elbasani (H) 43.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +5.3%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.2%

Vllaznia Shkodër (A) 26.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

AF Elbasani face Vllaznia Shkodër in Albania - Superliga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AF Elbasani a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Vllaznia Shkodër 26%, so AF Elbasani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for AF Elbasani and 0.9 for Vllaznia Shkodër (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AF Elbasani are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.21 for Vllaznia Shkodër. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 1-1.

AF Elbasani vs Vllaznia Shkodër Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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