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Vllaznia Shkodër vs Partizani Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:30

Vllaznia Shkodër

PPG 1.74 · HOME

LAST 5

DD ···

UPCOMING

Partizani

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 50% chance

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 44.5% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-18.8%0-23.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.2%1-112.5%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-18.9%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.8%3-14.2%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 58.8% 1.70 -19.9%

Draw 28.3% 30.3% 3.30 -4.0%

Away win 24.6% 22.2% 4.50 +6.4%

Over 2.5 44.5% 50.0% 2.00 -11.0%

Over 3.5 25.6% 26.6% 3.76 -2.3%

BTTS 49.6% 50.8% 1.97 -2.3%

Home O1.5 39.9% 51.5% 1.94 -22.6%

Away O1.5 25.5% 23.0% 4.35 +6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.6%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vllaznia Shkodër1.4

Partizani0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VLLAZNIA SHKODËR · PPG 1.74

PARTIZANI · PPG 1.32

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vllaznia Shkodër (H) 47.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -19.9%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.0%

Partizani (A) 24.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vllaznia Shkodër face Partizani in Albania - Superliga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vllaznia Shkodër a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Partizani 25%, so Vllaznia Shkodër are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vllaznia Shkodër and 0.9 for Partizani (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vllaznia Shkodër are averaging 1.74 points per game versus 1.32 for Partizani. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.1%.

Vllaznia Shkodër vs Partizani Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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