Today / Albania - Superliga / AF Elbasani vs KF Tirana

AF Elbasani vs KF Tirana Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Regular Season - 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:00

AF Elbasani

PPG 2.12 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

KF Tirana

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-18.8%0-23.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.4%1-112.1%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-18.3%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.4%3-13.8%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 44.4% 2.25 +12.3%

Draw 27.9% 32.3% 3.10 -8.1%

Away win 22.1% 35.1% 2.85 -22.2%

Over 2.5 45.8% 50.0% 2.00 -8.4%

Over 3.5 15.4% 28.6% 3.50 -27.7%

BTTS 48.2% 56.8% 1.76 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -61.7%

Bet Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.4%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.9%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AF Elbasani1.4

KF Tirana0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AF ELBASANI · PPG 2.12

KF TIRANA · PPG 1.12

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.12) vs P(Home)=49.9%

Win probability 1X2

AF Elbasani (H) 49.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +12.3%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.1%

KF Tirana (A) 22.1%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

AF Elbasani face KF Tirana in Albania - Superliga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AF Elbasani a 50% chance, the draw 28% and KF Tirana 22%, so AF Elbasani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for AF Elbasani and 0.7 for KF Tirana (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AF Elbasani are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.12 for KF Tirana. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 1-3.

AF Elbasani vs KF Tirana Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Albania - Superliga Predictions