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Valerenga W vs Brann W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 14:00

Valerenga W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Brann W

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-17.1%0-29.4%0-38.3%0-4+10.3%1 1-02.6%1-16.9%1-29.1%1-38.1%1-4+10.1%2 2-01.3%2-13.4%2-24.5%2-33.9%2-4+4.9%3 3-00.4%3-11.1%3-21.4%3-31.3%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.1% 22.2% 4.50 -24.6%

Draw 18.8% 26.7% 3.75 -17.7%

Away win 68.1% 63.7% 1.57 +6.9%

Over 2.5 65.8% 61.7% 1.62 +6.6%

Over 3.5 42.8% 38.2% 2.62 +12.1%

BTTS 61.6% 57.8% 1.73 +6.6%

Home O1.5 36.7% 29.2% 3.42 +25.5%

Away O1.5 67.9% 61.7% 1.62 +10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob61.6%

A 68% / xG 1.0-2.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.4%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–3✓ 8.3%

#4 1–3 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valerenga W1.0

Brann W2.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VALERENGA W · PPG 2.00

BRANN W · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Valerenga W (H) 13.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -24.6%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -17.7%

Brann W (A) 68.1%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valerenga W face Brann W in Norway - Toppserien on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valerenga W a 13% chance, the draw 19% and Brann W 68%, so Brann W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Valerenga W and 2.6 for Brann W (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valerenga W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Brann W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +33.7%. This match finished 0-3.

Valerenga W vs Brann W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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