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Guarani vs Caxias Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 14:00

Guarani

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Caxias

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-19.0%0-22.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.7%1-111.6%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.7%2-17.5%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.4%3-13.2%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 54.6% 1.83 -5.0%

Draw 28.1% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

Away win 19.9% 22.2% 4.50 -6.3%

Over 2.5 40.4% 37.0% 2.70 +9.1%

Over 3.5 22.8% 22.2% 4.50 +1.6%

BTTS 47.8% 44.4% 2.25 +7.5%

Home O1.5 41.6% 43.5% 2.30 -4.3%

Away O1.5 18.0% 21.1% 4.75 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.8%

H 52% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.7%

#2 0–0 15.3%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.7%

#5 2–1✓ 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guarani1.3

Caxias0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GUARANI · PPG 2.00

CAXIAS · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=51.9%

Win probability 1X2

Guarani (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -5.0%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.4%

Caxias (A) 19.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guarani face Caxias in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guarani a 52% chance, the draw 28% and Caxias 20%, so Guarani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Guarani and 0.6 for Caxias (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guarani are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Caxias. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Guarani vs Caxias Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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