Guarani vs Caxias Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Brazil - Serie C Regular Season - 10 Saturday, June 13, 2026 14:00

Guarani PPG 2.00

VS PENDING

Caxias PPG 0.60

Over2.5· +9.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Guarani face Caxias in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guarani a 52% chance, the draw 28% and Caxias 20%, so Guarani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Guarani and 0.6 for Caxias (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guarani are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Caxias. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.1%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.9%

Odds: 1.83 EV: -5.0%

Draw 28.1%

Odds: 3.00 EV: -9.4%

Away 19.9%

Odds: 4.50 EV: -6.3%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 40.4% Odds: 2.70 +9.1%

Over 3.5 22.8% Odds: 4.50 +1.6%

BTTS 47.8% Odds: 2.25 +7.5%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0

2nd 0-0

3rd 1-1

4th 2-0

5th 2-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Guarani

1.29

Caxias

0.59

Model SuggestionHome -5.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -5.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Over2.5 (+9.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 58%

Score Hit 68%

ROI -29.4%

Bet Hit 40% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=51.9%