Today / Ilves vs TPS

Ilves vs TPS Prediction

Saturday, June 13, 2026

Ilves

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

TPS

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=30.6%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-111.3%0-28.1%0-33.9%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.7%1-112.5%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.8%2-16.9%2-25.0%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.8%3-12.6%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% — — —

Draw 26.8% — — —

Away win 42.6% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 29.3% — — —

BTTS 55.7% — — —

Home O1.5 37.5% — — —

Away O1.5 37.3% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.7%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilves1.1

TPS1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ILVES · PPG 1.50

TPS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=30.6%

Win probability 1X2

Ilves (H) 30.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

TPS (A) 42.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilves face TPS on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilves a 31% chance, the draw 27% and TPS 43%, so TPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ilves and 1.4 for TPS (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilves are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.50 for TPS. This match finished 1-0.

Ilves vs TPS Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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