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Para Hills vs FK Beograd Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 05:30

Para Hills

PPG 0.29 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

FK Beograd

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 82.3% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-15.5%0-29.0%0-39.8%0-4+18.5%1 1-01.4%1-14.4%1-27.3%1-38.0%1-4+15.0%2 2-00.5%2-11.8%2-23.0%2-33.2%2-4+6.1%3 3-00.1%3-10.5%3-20.8%3-30.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.1% 9.3% 10.75 +18.0%

Draw 18.8% 17.2% 5.80 +5.4%

Away win 69.0% 85.5% 1.17 -19.3%

Over 2.5 65.8% 80.0% 1.25 -17.8%

Over 3.5 47.0% 64.5% 1.55 -27.2%

BTTS 55.7% 63.7% 1.57 -12.6%

Home O1.5 33.0% 27.3% 3.66 +20.8%

Away O1.5 82.3% 87.7% 1.14 -6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)3.3 BTTS prob55.7%

A 69% / xG 0.8-3.3 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 9.8%

#2 0–2 9.0%

#3 0–4 8.1%

#4 1–3 8.0%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Para Hills0.8

FK Beograd3.3

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 47.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PARA HILLS · PPG 0.29

FK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.14) vs Home POOR (0.29)

Win probability 1X2

Para Hills (H) 12.1%

ODDS 10.75 · IMPLIED 9.3% EV +18.0%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +5.4%

FK Beograd (A) 69.0%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Para Hills face FK Beograd in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Para Hills a 12% chance, the draw 19% and FK Beograd 69%, so FK Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Para Hills and 3.3 for FK Beograd (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Para Hills are averaging 0.29 points per game versus 1.14 for FK Beograd. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +20.8%. This match finished 1-5.

Para Hills vs FK Beograd Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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