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OConnor Knight vs Tuggeranong Utd Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 05:00

OConnor Knight

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Tuggeranong Utd

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 80.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1% — a clear edge.

+26.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.6%0-23.8%0-33.7%0-4+5.5%1 1-01.6%1-14.7%1-26.8%1-36.6%1-4+9.9%2 2-01.4%2-14.2%2-26.2%2-36.0%2-4+9.0%3 3-00.9%3-12.5%3-23.7%3-33.6%3-4+5.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.7%4+-22.5%4+-32.4%4+-4+3.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 41.7% 2.40 -18.2%

Draw 19.4% 27.0% 3.70 -16.9%

Away win 51.7% 43.5% 2.30 +18.9%

Over 2.5 73.9% 76.9% 1.30 -3.9%

Over 3.5 53.4% 59.2% 1.69 -9.8%

BTTS 67.2% 80.6% 1.24 -16.7%

Home O1.5 54.8% 62.1% 1.61 -11.8%

Away O1.5 80.9% 64.1% 1.56 +26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 5.3%

Bet Hit 77%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob67.2%

A 52% / xG 1.8-2.9 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 6.8%

#2 1–3 6.6%

#3 2–2 6.2%

#4 2–3✓ 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OConnor Knight1.8

Tuggeranong Utd2.9

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

OCONNOR KNIGHT · PPG 1.29

TUGGERANONG UTD · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

OConnor Knight (H) 29.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -18.2%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -16.9%

Tuggeranong Utd (A) 51.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

OConnor Knight face Tuggeranong Utd in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OConnor Knight a 29% chance, the draw 19% and Tuggeranong Utd 52%, so Tuggeranong Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for OConnor Knight and 2.9 for Tuggeranong Utd (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OConnor Knight are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.50 for Tuggeranong Utd. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +49.6%. This match finished 2-3.

OConnor Knight vs Tuggeranong Utd Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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