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Brindabella Blu vs Belconnen Utd Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 05:00

Brindabella Blu

PPG 0.00 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Belconnen Utd

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-16.3%0-28.2%0-37.1%0-4+8.7%1 1-02.7%1-17.0%1-29.2%1-38.0%1-4+9.7%2 2-01.5%2-13.9%2-25.1%2-34.4%2-4+5.4%3 3-00.6%3-11.5%3-21.9%3-31.7%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.3% 26.3% 3.80 -22.8%

Draw 19.0% 25.6% 3.90 -15.5%

Away win 64.7% 59.9% 1.67 +8.1%

Over 2.5 65.8% 73.5% 1.36 -10.5%

Over 3.5 44.4% 54.6% 1.83 -18.8%

BTTS 61.6% 73.5% 1.36 -16.2%

Home O1.5 38.1% 45.0% 2.22 -15.4%

Away O1.5 67.9% 71.9% 1.39 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 5.3%

Bet Hit 77%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob61.6%

A 65% / xG 1.1-2.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.2%

#2 0–2 8.2%

#3 1–1 7.0%

#4 1–3 8.0%

#5 0–3 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brindabella Blu1.1

Belconnen Utd2.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BRINDABELLA BLU · PPG 0.00

BELCONNEN UTD · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Brindabella Blu (H) 16.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -22.8%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -15.5%

Belconnen Utd (A) 64.7%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brindabella Blu face Belconnen Utd in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brindabella Blu a 16% chance, the draw 19% and Belconnen Utd 65%, so Belconnen Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Brindabella Blu and 2.6 for Belconnen Utd (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brindabella Blu are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Belconnen Utd. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 1-4.

Brindabella Blu vs Belconnen Utd Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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