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Tenerife vs Arenas Club Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 33 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:30

Tenerife

PPG 2.06 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Arenas Club

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 86.5% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-11.6%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.2%1-14.6%1-20.9%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.8%2-16.5%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.8%3-16.1%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-020.6%4+-18.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 86.5% 80.0% 1.25 +8.1%

Draw 10.1% 21.7% 4.60 -53.5%

Away win 3.3% 9.3% 10.80 -64.4%

Over 2.5 62.4% 57.1% 1.75 +9.2%

Over 3.5 40.2% 35.7% 2.80 +12.6%

BTTS 31.7% 46.5% 2.15 -31.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob31.7%

H 86% / xG 2.8-0.4 / O2.5 62% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 15.8%

#2 3–0 14.8%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 4–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tenerife2.8

Arenas Club0.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TENERIFE · PPG 2.06

ARENAS CLUB · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.06), Away POOR (0.75) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tenerife (H) 86.5%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV +8.1%

Draw 10.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -53.5%

Arenas Club (A) 3.3%

ODDS 10.80 · IMPLIED 9.3% EV -64.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tenerife face Arenas Club in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tenerife a 87% chance, the draw 10% and Arenas Club 3%, so Tenerife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Tenerife and 0.4 for Arenas Club (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tenerife are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 0.75 for Arenas Club. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Tenerife vs Arenas Club Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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