Today / Harju JK vs Kuressaare

Harju JK vs Kuressaare Prediction

Saturday, June 13, 2026

Harju JK

PPG 1.43 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kuressaare

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs P(Home)=50.9%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.0%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.3%1-111.6%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.4%2-19.6%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.2%3-15.3%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 24.1% — — —

Over 2.5 54.3% — — —

Over 3.5 32.5% — — —

BTTS 55.5% — — —

Home O1.5 54.8% — — —

Away O1.5 31.7% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.5%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harju JK1.7

Kuressaare1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HARJU JK · PPG 1.43

KURESSAARE · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs P(Home)=50.9%

Win probability 1X2

Harju JK (H) 50.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kuressaare (A) 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Harju JK face Kuressaare on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harju JK a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Kuressaare 24%, so Harju JK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Harju JK and 1.0 for Kuressaare (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harju JK are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.57 for Kuressaare. This match finished 2-3.

Harju JK vs Kuressaare Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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