Today / Partizan vs Z. Pancevo

Partizan vs Z. Pancevo Prediction

Saturday, April 18, 2026

Partizan

PPG 2.13 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Z. Pancevo

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.5%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.7%1-19.4%1-25.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.4%3-16.9%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-15.9%4+-23.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.5% — — —

Draw 20.5% — — —

Away win 18.9% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 39.5% — — —

BTTS 58.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.2%

H 60% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 9.9%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Partizan2.1

Z. Pancevo1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PARTIZAN · PPG 2.13

Z. PANCEVO · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=60.5%

Win probability 1X2

Partizan (H) 60.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Z. Pancevo (A) 18.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Partizan face Z. Pancevo on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Partizan a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Z. Pancevo 19%, so Partizan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Partizan and 1.1 for Z. Pancevo (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Partizan are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.27 for Z. Pancevo. This match finished 2-1.

Partizan vs Z. Pancevo Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions